COCOA SHORTAGE COULD CAUSE CHOCOLATE PRICES TO SURGE

COCOA SHORTAGE COULD CAUSE CHOCOLATE PRICES TO SURGE

BY JENNIFER NWOSU 

A potential cocoa crop shortage in Ghana and Ivory Coast, the top cocoa-producing regions in the world, could see a huge increase in chocolate prices worldwide.

Factors such as Cocoa prices surging to approximately 47% last  year, adverse weather conditions and crop diseases and also the looming El Niño weather phenomenon, are affecting Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together constitute two-thirds of the world’s cocoa supply.

 Analysts predict a third consecutive global shortage for the new season that is commencing, potentially resulting in continued inflation in the chocolate sector.

Major chocolate manufacturers like Hershey Co. and Lindt & Spruengli AG previously cautioned about potential price hikes indicating that increased prices are affecting demand in both Europe and the vital growth market of Asia.

Notably, New York cocoa futures reached a 12-year high in mid-September, nearly reaching a price last seen in 1979.

The surge was fuelled by excessive rainfall, pest infestations, and crop diseases affecting West African cocoa crops. The key question revolved around the size of the larger of the two annual cocoa harvests, which have recently commenced in Ghana and are beginning in the Ivory Coast.

Rabobank and Marex analysts anticipated a drop in West African cocoa output for the 2023-24 season, with Marex projecting a global deficit of 279,000 tons, surpassing the combined shortfalls of the previous two seasons.

Agricultural inputs like fertilizers and pesticides were also revealed to become scarcer and more expensive for African cocoa farmers, many of whom live below the poverty line.

The cocoa market’s tight supply chain has resulted in reduced processing of cocoa beans into confectionery products globally. High cocoa prices are beginning to impact demand in Asia, and Swiss grinder Barry Callebaut AG reported lower sales in July.

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